Minnesota Lynx 81, Phoenix Mercury 86
WNBA · 2025-09-28 · Winner: Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury defeated Minnesota Lynx 86–81 on 2025-09-28 in WNBA play, a 5-point result. A 12-0 home team run ending at Q4 2:44 swung win probability 5% → 94%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Minnesota Lynx lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Lynx | 25 | 11 | 32 | 13 | 81 |
| Phoenix Mercury | 14 | 24 | 17 | 31 | 86 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 home team run ending at Q4 2:44 swung win probability 5% → 94%.
Why Minnesota Lynx lost
- Lost Q4 13-31 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at Q4 2:44 (win probability 5% → 94% for the home side).
- Game was within 4 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Lynx | 10–0 | Q1 5:49 | 56% → 19% |
| Phoenix Mercury | 8–0 | Q3 9:28 | 31% → 72% |
| Minnesota Lynx | 8–0 | Q3 7:41 | 72% → 29% |
| Phoenix Mercury | 12–0 | Q4 2:44 | 5% → 94% |