Phoenix Mercury 86, Las Vegas Aces 89
WNBA · 2025-10-03 · Winner: Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces defeated Phoenix Mercury 89–86 on 2025-10-03 in WNBA play, a 3-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at Q3 3:36 swung win probability 56% → 9%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Phoenix Mercury lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Mercury | 21 | 29 | 21 | 15 | 86 |
| Las Vegas Aces | 21 | 24 | 22 | 22 | 89 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at Q3 3:36 swung win probability 56% → 9%.
Why Phoenix Mercury lost
- Lost Q4 15-22 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q2 9:33 (win probability 30% → 66% for the home side).
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Mercury | 10–0 | Q1 6:39 | 67% → 28% |
| Las Vegas Aces | 9–0 | Q2 9:33 | 30% → 66% |
| Las Vegas Aces | 9–0 | Q3 8:49 | 19% → 62% |
| Phoenix Mercury | 9–0 | Q3 3:36 | 56% → 9% |
| Las Vegas Aces | 8–0 | Q3 0:28 | 9% → 47% |