New York Liberty 99, Las Vegas Aces 104
WNBA · 2026-07-30 · Winner: Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces defeated New York Liberty 104–99 on 2026-07-30 in WNBA play, a 5-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q3 3:38 swung win probability 62% → 95%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why New York Liberty lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Liberty | 26 | 18 | 27 | 28 | 99 |
| Las Vegas Aces | 27 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 104 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q3 3:38 swung win probability 62% → 95%.
Why New York Liberty lost
- Lost Q2 18-25 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at Q1 1:40 (win probability 55% → 83% for the home side).
- Game was within 1 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces | 8–0 | Q1 1:40 | 55% → 83% |
| Las Vegas Aces | 8–0 | Q3 9:42 | 67% → 94% |
| Las Vegas Aces | 8–0 | Q3 3:38 | 62% → 95% |