Phoenix Mercury 72, Atlanta Dream 95
WNBA · 2025-08-01 · Winner: Atlanta Dream
Atlanta Dream defeated Phoenix Mercury 95–72 on 2025-08-01 in WNBA play, a 23-point result. A 13-0 home team run ending at Q1 4:25 swung win probability 28% → 77%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Phoenix Mercury lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Mercury | 23 | 19 | 8 | 22 | 72 |
| Atlanta Dream | 34 | 24 | 26 | 11 | 95 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 13-0 home team run ending at Q1 4:25 swung win probability 28% → 77%.
Why Phoenix Mercury lost
- Lost Q3 8-26 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 13-0 run ending at Q1 4:25 (win probability 28% → 77% for the home side).
- Shot 41.4% eFG vs a 50.2% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Mercury | 8–0 | Q1 7:49 | 59% → 29% |
| Atlanta Dream | 13–0 | Q1 4:25 | 28% → 77% |
| Atlanta Dream | 8–0 | Q2 4:03 | 87% → 98% |
| Atlanta Dream | 9–0 | Q3 6:43 | 99% → 100% |
| Atlanta Dream | 8–0 | Q3 1:22 | 100% → 100% |
| Phoenix Mercury | 10–0 | Q4 3:55 | 100% → 100% |