UC Merced Bobcats 38, Cal Poly Mustangs 79
NCAA Women's · 2026-11-02 · Winner: Cal Poly Mustangs
Cal Poly Mustangs defeated UC Merced Bobcats 79–38 on 2026-11-02 in NCAA Women's play, a 41-point result. A 17-0 home team run ending at Q4 8:02 swung win probability 99% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why UC Merced Bobcats lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Merced Bobcats | 4 | 15 | 2 | 17 | 38 |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 13 | 16 | 21 | 29 | 79 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 17-0 home team run ending at Q4 8:02 swung win probability 99% → 100%.
Why UC Merced Bobcats lost
- Lost Q3 2-21 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 17-0 run ending at Q4 8:02 (win probability 99% → 100% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 21-9.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 17–0 | Q4 8:02 | 99% → 100% |