Illinois State Redbirds 91, Dayton Flyers 87
NCAA Women's · 2026-11-05 · Winner: Illinois State Redbirds
Illinois State Redbirds defeated Dayton Flyers 91–87 on 2026-11-05 in NCAA Women's play, a 4-point result. A 14-0 road team run ending at Q4 2:24 swung win probability 98% → 31%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Dayton Flyers lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State Redbirds | 21 | 21 | 15 | 21 | 13 | 91 |
| Dayton Flyers | 19 | 20 | 22 | 17 | 9 | 87 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 14-0 road team run ending at Q4 2:24 swung win probability 98% → 31%.
Why Dayton Flyers lost
- Gave up a 14-0 run ending at Q4 2:24 (win probability 98% → 31% for the home side).
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State Redbirds | 9–0 | Q1 4:16 | 63% → 30% |
| Dayton Flyers | 8–0 | Q4 9:11 | 58% → 92% |
| Illinois State Redbirds | 14–0 | Q4 2:24 | 98% → 31% |