Samford Bulldogs 53, Southern Jaguars 65
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-19 · Winner: Southern Jaguars
Southern Jaguars defeated Samford Bulldogs 65–53 on 2026-03-19 in NCAA Women's play, a 12-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q4 4:23 swung win probability 55% → 99%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Samford Bulldogs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samford Bulldogs | 8 | 16 | 20 | 9 | 53 |
| Southern Jaguars | 11 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 65 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q4 4:23 swung win probability 55% → 99%.
Why Samford Bulldogs lost
- Lost Q4 9-21 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q1 5:32 (win probability 55% → 84% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 19-10.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 12-6.
- Game was within 3 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Jaguars | 9–0 | Q1 5:32 | 55% → 84% |
| Southern Jaguars | 9–0 | Q2 1:57 | 46% → 84% |
| Southern Jaguars | 8–0 | Q4 4:23 | 55% → 99% |