Toledo Rockets 69, Ball State Cardinals 65
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-13 · Winner: Toledo Rockets
Toledo Rockets defeated Ball State Cardinals 69–65 on 2026-03-13 in NCAA Women's play, a 4-point result. A 10-0 road team run ending at Q3 5:27 swung win probability 73% → 20%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Ball State Cardinals lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo Rockets | 10 | 20 | 22 | 17 | 69 |
| Ball State Cardinals | 19 | 10 | 20 | 16 | 65 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 road team run ending at Q3 5:27 swung win probability 73% → 20%.
Why Ball State Cardinals lost
- Lost Q2 10-20 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at Q2 0:53 (win probability 92% → 54% for the home side).
- Shot 45.4% eFG vs a 51.9% season average - a cold night.
- Outscored 17-6 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 4 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State Cardinals | 8–0 | Q1 3:26 | 62% → 86% |
| Toledo Rockets | 11–0 | Q2 0:53 | 92% → 54% |
| Toledo Rockets | 10–0 | Q3 5:27 | 73% → 20% |