Arkansas State Red Wolves 73, Troy Trojans 83
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-08 · Winner: Troy Trojans
Troy Trojans defeated Arkansas State Red Wolves 83–73 on 2026-03-08 in NCAA Women's play, a 10-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q2 3:40 swung win probability 56% → 88%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 25 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 73 |
| Troy Trojans | 23 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 83 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q2 3:40 swung win probability 56% → 88%.
Why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost
- Lost Q2 7-20 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q4 4:42 (win probability 97% → 100% for the home side).
- Beaten on the offensive glass 20-11.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Trojans | 9–0 | Q2 3:40 | 56% → 88% |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 12–0 | Q3 3:56 | 100% → 90% |
| Troy Trojans | 10–0 | Q4 4:42 | 97% → 100% |