South Alabama Jaguars 69, Texas State Bobcats 59
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-05 · Winner: South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama Jaguars defeated Texas State Bobcats 69–59 on 2026-03-05 in NCAA Women's play, a 10-point result. A 11-0 home team run ending at Q4 5:59 swung win probability 1% → 45%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Texas State Bobcats lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama Jaguars | 18 | 6 | 25 | 20 | 69 |
| Texas State Bobcats | 15 | 14 | 8 | 22 | 59 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 11-0 home team run ending at Q4 5:59 swung win probability 1% → 45%.
Why Texas State Bobcats lost
- Lost Q3 8-25 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q3 1:33 (win probability 35% → 1% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 15-11.
- Game was within 3 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama Jaguars | 8–0 | Q3 7:59 | 81% → 42% |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 10–0 | Q3 1:33 | 35% → 1% |
| Texas State Bobcats | 11–0 | Q4 5:59 | 1% → 45% |