Air Force Falcons 83, San Diego State Aztecs 76
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-08 · Winner: Air Force Falcons
Air Force Falcons defeated San Diego State Aztecs 83–76 on 2026-03-08 in NCAA Women's play, a 7-point result. A 8-0 road team run ending at Q4 4:18 swung win probability 78% → 10%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why San Diego State Aztecs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force Falcons | 12 | 14 | 29 | 28 | 83 |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 16 | 16 | 22 | 22 | 76 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 road team run ending at Q4 4:18 swung win probability 78% → 10%.
Why San Diego State Aztecs lost
- Lost Q3 22-29 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q3 4:55 (win probability 82% → 29% for the home side).
- Outscored 27-11 at the free-throw line.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 10-5.
- Game was within 3 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State Aztecs | 9–0 | Q3 9:49 | 55% → 90% |
| Air Force Falcons | 10–0 | Q3 4:55 | 82% → 29% |
| Air Force Falcons | 8–0 | Q4 4:18 | 78% → 10% |