Merrimack Warriors 48, Fairfield Stags 65
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-08 · Winner: Fairfield Stags
Fairfield Stags defeated Merrimack Warriors 65–48 on 2026-03-08 in NCAA Women's play, a 17-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q1 0:03 swung win probability 42% → 76%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Merrimack Warriors lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrimack Warriors | 10 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 48 |
| Fairfield Stags | 14 | 14 | 20 | 17 | 65 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q1 0:03 swung win probability 42% → 76%.
Why Merrimack Warriors lost
- Lost Q4 7-17 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q4 8:07 (win probability 80% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 38.2% eFG vs a 45.9% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 24-19.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merrimack Warriors | 8–0 | Q1 4:24 | 72% → 42% |
| Fairfield Stags | 9–0 | Q1 0:03 | 42% → 76% |
| Fairfield Stags | 10–0 | Q4 8:07 | 80% → 100% |