Sacramento State Hornets 51, Idaho Vandals 59
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-10 · Winner: Idaho Vandals
Idaho Vandals defeated Sacramento State Hornets 59–51 on 2026-03-10 in NCAA Women's play, a 8-point result. A 13-0 road team run ending at Q2 3:01 swung win probability 95% → 55%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Sacramento State Hornets lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento State Hornets | 12 | 13 | 18 | 8 | 51 |
| Idaho Vandals | 17 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 59 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 13-0 road team run ending at Q2 3:01 swung win probability 95% → 55%.
Why Sacramento State Hornets lost
- Lost Q4 8-15 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q2 6:00 (win probability 72% → 95% for the home side).
- Shot 40.0% eFG vs a 46.5% season average - a cold night.
- Outscored 17-7 at the free-throw line.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 15-10.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho Vandals | 9–0 | Q2 6:00 | 72% → 95% |
| Sacramento State Hornets | 13–0 | Q2 3:01 | 95% → 55% |
| Idaho Vandals | 8–0 | Q3 9:30 | 55% → 88% |
| Idaho Vandals | 8–0 | Q4 4:23 | 64% → 100% |