Xavier Musketeers 48, St. John's Red Storm 53
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-06 · Winner: St. John's Red Storm
St. John's Red Storm defeated Xavier Musketeers 53–48 on 2026-03-06 in NCAA Women's play, a 5-point result. A 10-0 home team run ending at Q4 3:08 swung win probability 30% → 99%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Xavier Musketeers lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Musketeers | 16 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 48 |
| St. John's Red Storm | 15 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 53 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 home team run ending at Q4 3:08 swung win probability 30% → 99%.
Why Xavier Musketeers lost
- Lost Q4 7-18 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q4 3:08 (win probability 30% → 99% for the home side).
- Shot 37.3% eFG vs a 44.4% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 4 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Musketeers | 10–0 | Q1 3:58 | 75% → 38% |
| Xavier Musketeers | 8–0 | Q3 8:12 | 68% → 28% |
| St. John's Red Storm | 10–0 | Q4 3:08 | 30% → 99% |