North Carolina Tar Heels 57, Louisville Cardinals 65
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-07 · Winner: Louisville Cardinals
Louisville Cardinals defeated North Carolina Tar Heels 65–57 on 2026-03-07 in NCAA Women's play, a 8-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q4 9:09 swung win probability 70% → 98%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why North Carolina Tar Heels lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 10 | 17 | 13 | 17 | 57 |
| Louisville Cardinals | 16 | 12 | 17 | 20 | 65 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q4 9:09 swung win probability 70% → 98%.
Why North Carolina Tar Heels lost
- Lost Q1 10-16 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q2 9:10 (win probability 62% → 89% for the home side).
- Shot 41.5% eFG vs a 51.7% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals | 9–0 | Q2 9:10 | 62% → 89% |
| Louisville Cardinals | 8–0 | Q4 9:09 | 70% → 98% |