Troy Trojans 86, Ball State Cardinals 87
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-07 · Winner: Ball State Cardinals
Ball State Cardinals defeated Troy Trojans 87–86 on 2026-02-07 in NCAA Women's play, a 1-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q4 0:06 swung win probability 0% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Troy Trojans lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Trojans | 22 | 18 | 28 | 18 | 86 |
| Ball State Cardinals | 18 | 26 | 22 | 21 | 87 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q4 0:06 swung win probability 0% → 100%.
Why Troy Trojans lost
- Lost Q2 18-26 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q2 5:24 (win probability 40% → 76% for the home side).
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State Cardinals | 9–0 | Q2 5:24 | 40% → 76% |
| Troy Trojans | 13–0 | Q4 9:02 | 84% → 8% |
| Ball State Cardinals | 9–0 | Q4 0:06 | 0% → 100% |