San Diego State Aztecs 75, UNLV Lady Rebels 66
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-17 · Winner: San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State Aztecs defeated UNLV Lady Rebels 75–66 on 2026-01-17 in NCAA Women's play, a 9-point result. A 10-0 home team run ending at Q4 0:47 swung win probability 7% → 73%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why UNLV Lady Rebels lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State Aztecs | 13 | 17 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 75 |
| UNLV Lady Rebels | 15 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 3 | 66 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 home team run ending at Q4 0:47 swung win probability 7% → 73%.
Why UNLV Lady Rebels lost
- Lost Q5 3-12 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at Q3 4:40 (win probability 73% → 21% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 24-16.
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV Lady Rebels | 8–0 | Q3 6:33 | 37% → 73% |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 11–0 | Q3 4:40 | 73% → 21% |
| UNLV Lady Rebels | 10–0 | Q4 0:47 | 7% → 73% |