Cal Poly Mustangs 28, UCLA Bruins 115
NCAA Women's · 2025-12-16 · Winner: UCLA Bruins
UCLA Bruins defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 115–28 on 2025-12-16 in NCAA Women's play, a 87-point result. A 11-0 home team run ending at Q2 7:49 swung win probability 89% → 99%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 13 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 28 |
| UCLA Bruins | 25 | 35 | 31 | 24 | 115 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 11-0 home team run ending at Q2 7:49 swung win probability 89% → 99%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost Q2 3-35 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 27-0 run ending at Q2 0:02 (win probability 98% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 32.5% eFG vs a 41.7% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 31-7.
- Outscored 18-2 at the free-throw line.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 20-2.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA Bruins | 11–0 | Q2 7:49 | 89% → 99% |
| UCLA Bruins | 27–0 | Q2 0:02 | 98% → 100% |
| UCLA Bruins | 24–0 | Q3 1:09 | 100% → 100% |
| UCLA Bruins | 12–0 | Q4 6:34 | 100% → 100% |