San Diego State Aztecs 44, Grand Canyon Lopes 57
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-04 · Winner: Grand Canyon Lopes
Grand Canyon Lopes defeated San Diego State Aztecs 57–44 on 2026-02-04 in NCAA Women's play, a 13-point result. A 10-0 home team run ending at Q4 1:52 swung win probability 94% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why San Diego State Aztecs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State Aztecs | 9 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 44 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes | 13 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 57 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 home team run ending at Q4 1:52 swung win probability 94% → 100%.
Why San Diego State Aztecs lost
- Lost Q4 11-24 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q4 1:52 (win probability 94% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 32.6% eFG vs a 51.5% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 4 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes | 10–0 | Q4 1:52 | 94% → 100% |