Grand Canyon Lopes 69, San Diego State Aztecs 87
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-07 · Winner: San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State Aztecs defeated Grand Canyon Lopes 87–69 on 2026-01-07 in NCAA Women's play, a 18-point result. A 14-0 home team run ending at Q1 5:04 swung win probability 62% → 95%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Grand Canyon Lopes lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes | 9 | 20 | 23 | 17 | 69 |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 37 | 14 | 22 | 14 | 87 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 14-0 home team run ending at Q1 5:04 swung win probability 62% → 95%.
Why Grand Canyon Lopes lost
- Lost Q1 9-37 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 18-0 run ending at Q2 9:36 (win probability 94% → 100% for the home side).
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State Aztecs | 14–0 | Q1 5:04 | 62% → 95% |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 18–0 | Q2 9:36 | 94% → 100% |
| Grand Canyon Lopes | 9–0 | Q2 6:44 | 100% → 100% |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 8–0 | Q3 6:41 | 100% → 100% |
| Grand Canyon Lopes | 8–0 | Q3 5:01 | 100% → 100% |
| Grand Canyon Lopes | 8–0 | Q4 4:25 | 100% → 100% |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 8–0 | Q4 0:35 | 100% → 100% |