Duquesne Dukes 61, Dayton Flyers 68
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-03 · Winner: Dayton Flyers
Dayton Flyers defeated Duquesne Dukes 68–61 on 2026-01-03 in NCAA Women's play, a 7-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q4 0:24 swung win probability 38% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Duquesne Dukes lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duquesne Dukes | 17 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 61 |
| Dayton Flyers | 14 | 18 | 12 | 24 | 68 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q4 0:24 swung win probability 38% → 100%.
Why Duquesne Dukes lost
- Lost Q4 12-24 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at Q2 6:03 (win probability 27% → 72% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 21-14.
- Game was within 1 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duquesne Dukes | 13–0 | Q2 8:32 | 79% → 27% |
| Dayton Flyers | 11–0 | Q2 6:03 | 27% → 72% |
| Duquesne Dukes | 11–0 | Q3 7:08 | 64% → 12% |
| Dayton Flyers | 8–0 | Q4 0:24 | 38% → 100% |