Pepperdine Waves 51, Saint Mary's Gaels 53
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-22 · Winner: Saint Mary's Gaels
Saint Mary's Gaels defeated Pepperdine Waves 53–51 on 2026-01-22 in NCAA Women's play, a 2-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q4 1:29 swung win probability 34% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Pepperdine Waves lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepperdine Waves | 13 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 51 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels | 11 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 53 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q4 1:29 swung win probability 34% → 100%.
Why Pepperdine Waves lost
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at Q4 1:29 (win probability 34% → 100% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 19-10.
- Game was within 1 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pepperdine Waves | 8–0 | Q1 2:39 | 72% → 42% |
| Saint Mary's Gaels | 8–0 | Q4 1:29 | 34% → 100% |