Northern Iowa Panthers 58, St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies 40
NCAA Women's · 2025-12-21 · Winner: Northern Iowa Panthers
Northern Iowa Panthers defeated St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies 58–40 on 2025-12-21 in NCAA Women's play, a 18-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at Q4 7:05 swung win probability 86% → 22%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa Panthers | 14 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 58 |
| St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies | 15 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 40 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at Q4 7:05 swung win probability 86% → 22%.
Why St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies lost
- Lost Q4 4-24 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q4 0:26 (win probability 0% → 0% for the home side).
- Shot 35.9% eFG vs a 49.1% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 25-16.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies | 8–0 | Q1 0:59 | 34% → 65% |
| Northern Iowa Panthers | 9–0 | Q4 7:05 | 86% → 22% |
| Northern Iowa Panthers | 8–0 | Q4 4:12 | 36% → 0% |
| Northern Iowa Panthers | 10–0 | Q4 0:26 | 0% → 0% |