Cal Poly Mustangs 39, USC Trojans 86
NCAA Women's · 2025-12-18 · Winner: USC Trojans
USC Trojans defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 86–39 on 2025-12-18 in NCAA Women's play, a 47-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q1 6:04 swung win probability 66% → 90%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 10 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 39 |
| USC Trojans | 25 | 20 | 26 | 15 | 86 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q1 6:04 swung win probability 66% → 90%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost Q3 5-26 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 19-0 run ending at Q3 6:27 (win probability 98% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 36.4% eFG vs a 41.7% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 27-7.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 21-7.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC Trojans | 9–0 | Q1 6:04 | 66% → 90% |
| USC Trojans | 12–0 | Q1 0:59 | 78% → 98% |
| USC Trojans | 19–0 | Q3 6:27 | 98% → 100% |
| USC Trojans | 10–0 | Q3 3:58 | 100% → 100% |