Villanova Wildcats 78, Xavier Musketeers 38
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-11 · Winner: Villanova Wildcats
Villanova Wildcats defeated Xavier Musketeers 78–38 on 2026-02-11 in NCAA Women's play, a 40-point result. A 10-0 road team run ending at Q2 7:24 swung win probability 43% → 9%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Xavier Musketeers lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova Wildcats | 15 | 19 | 37 | 7 | 78 |
| Xavier Musketeers | 8 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 38 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 road team run ending at Q2 7:24 swung win probability 43% → 9%.
Why Xavier Musketeers lost
- Lost Q3 15-37 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at Q3 0:02 (win probability 0% → 0% for the home side).
- Shot 35.1% eFG vs a 44.4% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 22-14.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 19-4.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova Wildcats | 10–0 | Q2 7:24 | 43% → 9% |
| Villanova Wildcats | 12–0 | Q3 0:02 | 0% → 0% |
| Xavier Musketeers | 9–0 | Q4 5:05 | 0% → 0% |