USC Trojans 68, Michigan State Spartans 74
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-22 · Winner: Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State Spartans defeated USC Trojans 74–68 on 2026-01-22 in NCAA Women's play, a 6-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q4 8:51 swung win probability 45% → 94%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why USC Trojans lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC Trojans | 17 | 20 | 12 | 19 | 68 |
| Michigan State Spartans | 24 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 74 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q4 8:51 swung win probability 45% → 94%.
Why USC Trojans lost
- Lost Q1 17-24 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q4 8:51 (win probability 45% → 94% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 24-12.
- Outscored 19-7 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State Spartans | 8–0 | Q1 3:03 | 81% → 96% |
| Michigan State Spartans | 9–0 | Q4 8:51 | 45% → 94% |
| Michigan State Spartans | 8–0 | Q4 6:33 | 83% → 100% |
| USC Trojans | 10–0 | Q4 4:10 | 100% → 75% |