Michigan State Spartans 85, Oregon Ducks 81
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-11 · Winner: Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State Spartans defeated Oregon Ducks 85–81 on 2026-01-11 in NCAA Women's play, a 4-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q4 8:06 swung win probability 14% → 71%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Oregon Ducks lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State Spartans | 20 | 24 | 23 | 18 | 85 |
| Oregon Ducks | 31 | 12 | 19 | 19 | 81 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q4 8:06 swung win probability 14% → 71%.
Why Oregon Ducks lost
- Lost Q2 12-24 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 17-0 run ending at Q2 0:52 (win probability 97% → 44% for the home side).
- Beaten on the offensive glass 16-8.
- Game was within 1 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon Ducks | 9–0 | Q1 6:29 | 66% → 90% |
| Michigan State Spartans | 17–0 | Q2 0:52 | 97% → 44% |
| Michigan State Spartans | 10–0 | Q3 3:53 | 82% → 28% |
| Oregon Ducks | 9–0 | Q4 8:06 | 14% → 71% |