Illinois Fighting Illini 75, Michigan State Spartans 81
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-04 · Winner: Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State Spartans defeated Illinois Fighting Illini 81–75 on 2026-01-04 in NCAA Women's play, a 6-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q2 5:26 swung win probability 56% → 88%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Illinois Fighting Illini lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 18 | 14 | 18 | 25 | 75 |
| Michigan State Spartans | 23 | 21 | 14 | 23 | 81 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q2 5:26 swung win probability 56% → 88%.
Why Illinois Fighting Illini lost
- Lost Q2 14-21 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q2 5:26 (win probability 56% → 88% for the home side).
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 9–0 | Q2 7:35 | 87% → 56% |
| Michigan State Spartans | 9–0 | Q2 5:26 | 56% → 88% |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 10–0 | Q4 8:26 | 99% → 77% |