Central Arkansas Sugar Bears 61, Missouri State Lady Bears 65
NCAA Women's · 2025-12-22 · Winner: Missouri State Lady Bears
Missouri State Lady Bears defeated Central Arkansas Sugar Bears 65–61 on 2025-12-22 in NCAA Women's play, a 4-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q2 4:05 swung win probability 56% → 86%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Central Arkansas Sugar Bears lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Arkansas Sugar Bears | 20 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 61 |
| Missouri State Lady Bears | 20 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 65 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q2 4:05 swung win probability 56% → 86%.
Why Central Arkansas Sugar Bears lost
- Lost Q2 8-15 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q4 9:29 (win probability 69% → 99% for the home side).
- Shot 40.3% eFG vs a 47.0% season average - a cold night.
- Outscored 19-7 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State Lady Bears | 8–0 | Q2 4:05 | 56% → 86% |
| Missouri State Lady Bears | 9–0 | Q4 9:29 | 69% → 99% |
| Central Arkansas Sugar Bears | 10–0 | Q4 4:58 | 100% → 81% |