Southern Jaguars 63, Alabama State Lady Hornets 65
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-03 · Winner: Alabama State Lady Hornets
Alabama State Lady Hornets defeated Southern Jaguars 65–63 on 2026-03-03 in NCAA Women's play, a 2-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q4 0:08 swung win probability 1% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Southern Jaguars lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Jaguars | 21 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 63 |
| Alabama State Lady Hornets | 15 | 18 | 14 | 18 | 65 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q4 0:08 swung win probability 1% → 100%.
Why Southern Jaguars lost
- Lost Q2 8-18 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q2 7:25 (win probability 22% → 60% for the home side).
- Beaten on the offensive glass 17-11.
- Game was within 2 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Jaguars | 8–0 | Q1 7:55 | 69% → 40% |
| Southern Jaguars | 8–0 | Q1 4:43 | 55% → 25% |
| Alabama State Lady Hornets | 10–0 | Q2 7:25 | 22% → 60% |
| Southern Jaguars | 10–0 | Q4 5:45 | 96% → 36% |
| Alabama State Lady Hornets | 9–0 | Q4 0:08 | 1% → 100% |