Samford Bulldogs 54, Mississippi State Bulldogs 112
NCAA Women's · 2025-12-28 · Winner: Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs defeated Samford Bulldogs 112–54 on 2025-12-28 in NCAA Women's play, a 58-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q2 4:59 swung win probability 99% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Samford Bulldogs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samford Bulldogs | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 54 |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 25 | 26 | 38 | 23 | 112 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q2 4:59 swung win probability 99% → 100%.
Why Samford Bulldogs lost
- Lost Q3 15-38 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 14-0 run ending at Q3 4:32 (win probability 100% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 39.2% eFG vs a 46.7% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 12-7.
- Outscored 18-3 at the free-throw line.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 18-6.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 9–0 | Q2 4:59 | 99% → 100% |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 8–0 | Q3 8:37 | 100% → 100% |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 14–0 | Q3 4:32 | 100% → 100% |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 9–0 | Q4 7:31 | 100% → 100% |