SMU Mustangs 34, California Golden Bears 78
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-01 · Winner: California Golden Bears
California Golden Bears defeated SMU Mustangs 78–34 on 2026-03-01 in NCAA Women's play, a 44-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q1 3:32 swung win probability 66% → 90%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why SMU Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 10 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 34 |
| California Golden Bears | 22 | 18 | 20 | 18 | 78 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q1 3:32 swung win probability 66% → 90%.
Why SMU Mustangs lost
- Lost Q3 7-20 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q2 8:15 (win probability 84% → 98% for the home side).
- Shot 20.8% eFG vs a 42.4% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Golden Bears | 9–0 | Q1 3:32 | 66% → 90% |
| California Golden Bears | 10–0 | Q2 8:15 | 84% → 98% |
| California Golden Bears | 9–0 | Q4 7:31 | 100% → 100% |