Duke Blue Devils 69, North Carolina Tar Heels 74
NCAA Women's · 2026-03-01 · Winner: North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels defeated Duke Blue Devils 74–69 on 2026-03-01 in NCAA Women's play, a 5-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q3 7:34 swung win probability 39% → 82%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Duke Blue Devils lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 14 | 17 | 16 | 22 | 69 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 13 | 16 | 23 | 22 | 74 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q3 7:34 swung win probability 39% → 82%.
Why Duke Blue Devils lost
- Lost Q3 16-23 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q2 8:52 (win probability 41% → 76% for the home side).
- Outscored 20-10 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 1 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 9–0 | Q2 8:52 | 41% → 76% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 9–0 | Q3 7:34 | 39% → 82% |