North Carolina Tar Heels 82, Virginia Cavaliers 70
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-26 · Winner: North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels defeated Virginia Cavaliers 82–70 on 2026-02-26 in NCAA Women's play, a 12-point result. A 8-0 road team run ending at Q2 5:25 swung win probability 31% → 7%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Virginia Cavaliers lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 15 | 25 | 20 | 22 | 82 |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 8 | 15 | 24 | 23 | 70 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 road team run ending at Q2 5:25 swung win probability 31% → 7%.
Why Virginia Cavaliers lost
- Lost Q2 15-25 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at Q2 5:25 (win probability 31% → 7% for the home side).
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 8–0 | Q2 5:25 | 31% → 7% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 8–0 | Q3 1:23 | 0% → 4% |