Virginia Cavaliers 74, Louisville Cardinals 72
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-22 · Winner: Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Cavaliers defeated Louisville Cardinals 74–72 on 2026-02-22 in NCAA Women's play, a 2-point result. A 11-0 road team run ending at Q1 4:33 swung win probability 83% → 46%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Louisville Cardinals lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers | 18 | 23 | 15 | 18 | 74 |
| Louisville Cardinals | 14 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 72 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 11-0 road team run ending at Q1 4:33 swung win probability 83% → 46%.
Why Louisville Cardinals lost
- Lost Q2 16-23 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at Q1 4:33 (win probability 83% → 46% for the home side).
- Shot 42.0% eFG vs a 51.5% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals | 8–0 | Q1 7:02 | 59% → 83% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 11–0 | Q1 4:33 | 83% → 46% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 9–0 | Q2 7:55 | 52% → 17% |
| Louisville Cardinals | 8–0 | Q3 7:55 | 12% → 42% |