North Carolina Tar Heels 68, Duke Blue Devils 72
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-15 · Winner: Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils defeated North Carolina Tar Heels 72–68 on 2026-02-15 in NCAA Women's play, a 4-point result. A 15-0 home team run ending at Q3 9:19 swung win probability 36% → 94%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why North Carolina Tar Heels lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 18 | 15 | 21 | 14 | 68 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 19 | 22 | 17 | 14 | 72 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 15-0 home team run ending at Q3 9:19 swung win probability 36% → 94%.
Why North Carolina Tar Heels lost
- Lost Q2 15-22 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 15-0 run ending at Q3 9:19 (win probability 36% → 94% for the home side).
- Outscored 17-0 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 4 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 15–0 | Q3 9:19 | 36% → 94% |