SMU Mustangs 42, North Carolina Tar Heels 94
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-12 · Winner: North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels defeated SMU Mustangs 94–42 on 2026-02-12 in NCAA Women's play, a 52-point result. A 12-0 home team run ending at Q1 4:21 swung win probability 66% → 94%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why SMU Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 9 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 28 | 21 | 18 | 27 | 94 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 home team run ending at Q1 4:21 swung win probability 66% → 94%.
Why SMU Mustangs lost
- Lost Q1 9-28 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 14-0 run ending at Q2 4:06 (win probability 98% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 25.0% eFG vs a 42.4% season average - a cold night.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 13-5.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 12–0 | Q1 4:21 | 66% → 94% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 14–0 | Q2 4:06 | 98% → 100% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 8–0 | Q3 9:07 | 100% → 100% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 8–0 | Q4 7:22 | 100% → 100% |