SMU Mustangs 36, Duke Blue Devils 95
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-08 · Winner: Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils defeated SMU Mustangs 95–36 on 2026-02-08 in NCAA Women's play, a 59-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q1 5:26 swung win probability 72% → 92%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why SMU Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 36 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 24 | 22 | 30 | 19 | 95 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q1 5:26 swung win probability 72% → 92%.
Why SMU Mustangs lost
- Lost Q3 10-30 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at Q4 9:45 (win probability 100% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 25.4% eFG vs a 42.4% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 25-17.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 19-11.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 8–0 | Q1 5:26 | 72% → 92% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 11–0 | Q1 1:12 | 86% → 99% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 9–0 | Q3 6:09 | 100% → 100% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 12–0 | Q4 9:45 | 100% → 100% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 9–0 | Q4 1:14 | 100% → 100% |