Duke Blue Devils 59, Louisville Cardinals 58
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-05 · Winner: Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils defeated Louisville Cardinals 59–58 on 2026-02-05 in NCAA Women's play, a 1-point result. A 8-0 road team run ending at Q4 4:28 swung win probability 77% → 10%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Louisville Cardinals lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 23 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 59 |
| Louisville Cardinals | 11 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 58 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 road team run ending at Q4 4:28 swung win probability 77% → 10%.
Why Louisville Cardinals lost
- Lost Q1 11-23 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at Q4 4:28 (win probability 77% → 10% for the home side).
- Shot 37.9% eFG vs a 51.5% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 3 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals | 11–0 | Q4 8:27 | 15% → 77% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 8–0 | Q4 4:28 | 77% → 10% |