North Carolina Tar Heels 82, Florida State Seminoles 55
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-18 · Winner: North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels defeated Florida State Seminoles 82–55 on 2026-01-18 in NCAA Women's play, a 27-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at Q2 7:19 swung win probability 46% → 12%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Florida State Seminoles lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 17 | 21 | 23 | 21 | 82 |
| Florida State Seminoles | 8 | 11 | 16 | 20 | 55 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at Q2 7:19 swung win probability 46% → 12%.
Why Florida State Seminoles lost
- Lost Q2 11-21 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at Q2 0:31 (win probability 29% → 1% for the home side).
- Shot 35.7% eFG vs a 43.7% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 9–0 | Q2 7:19 | 46% → 12% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 12–0 | Q2 0:31 | 29% → 1% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 8–0 | Q3 7:50 | 4% → 0% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 8–0 | Q4 4:52 | 0% → 0% |