Virginia Cavaliers 58, Duke Blue Devils 65
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-15 · Winner: Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils defeated Virginia Cavaliers 65–58 on 2026-01-15 in NCAA Women's play, a 7-point result. A 11-0 home team run ending at Q4 4:08 swung win probability 12% → 94%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Virginia Cavaliers lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers | 14 | 10 | 21 | 13 | 58 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 23 | 12 | 9 | 21 | 65 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 11-0 home team run ending at Q4 4:08 swung win probability 12% → 94%.
Why Virginia Cavaliers lost
- Lost Q1 14-23 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at Q4 4:08 (win probability 12% → 94% for the home side).
- Shot 42.7% eFG vs a 49.3% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 10–0 | Q1 4:56 | 62% → 90% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 10–0 | Q4 8:58 | 83% → 21% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 11–0 | Q4 4:08 | 12% → 94% |