Duke Blue Devils 78, California Golden Bears 74
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-08 · Winner: Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils defeated California Golden Bears 78–74 on 2026-01-08 in NCAA Women's play, a 4-point result. A 11-0 home team run ending at Q3 0:04 swung win probability 51% → 98%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why California Golden Bears lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 26 | 16 | 12 | 24 | 78 |
| California Golden Bears | 20 | 19 | 25 | 10 | 74 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 11-0 home team run ending at Q3 0:04 swung win probability 51% → 98%.
Why California Golden Bears lost
- Lost Q4 10-24 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at Q3 6:26 (win probability 59% → 18% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 19-9.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 8–0 | Q3 6:26 | 59% → 18% |
| California Golden Bears | 9–0 | Q3 3:55 | 18% → 63% |
| California Golden Bears | 11–0 | Q3 0:04 | 51% → 98% |