Virginia Cavaliers 91, Florida State Seminoles 87
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-04 · Winner: Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Cavaliers defeated Florida State Seminoles 91–87 on 2026-01-04 in NCAA Women's play, a 4-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at Q1 7:08 swung win probability 70% → 40%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Florida State Seminoles lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | OT2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers | 31 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 91 |
| Florida State Seminoles | 15 | 17 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 87 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at Q1 7:08 swung win probability 70% → 40%.
Why Florida State Seminoles lost
- Lost Q1 15-31 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q1 7:08 (win probability 70% → 40% for the home side).
- Beaten on the offensive glass 18-13.
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers | 9–0 | Q1 7:08 | 70% → 40% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 8–0 | Q1 0:05 | 35% → 13% |
| Florida State Seminoles | 9–0 | Q2 5:34 | 10% → 32% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 8–0 | Q2 2:00 | 32% → 9% |