SMU Mustangs 52, Virginia Cavaliers 76
NCAA Women's · 2025-12-29 · Winner: Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Cavaliers defeated SMU Mustangs 76–52 on 2025-12-29 in NCAA Women's play, a 24-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q1 5:58 swung win probability 55% → 84%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why SMU Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 14 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 52 |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 23 | 12 | 22 | 19 | 76 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q1 5:58 swung win probability 55% → 84%.
Why SMU Mustangs lost
- Lost Q3 7-22 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 20-0 run ending at Q3 2:21 (win probability 84% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 35.0% eFG vs a 42.4% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers | 9–0 | Q1 5:58 | 55% → 84% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 9–0 | Q1 0:20 | 69% → 92% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 20–0 | Q3 2:21 | 84% → 100% |