Louisville Cardinals 76, North Carolina Tar Heels 66
NCAA Women's · 2025-12-14 · Winner: Louisville Cardinals
Louisville Cardinals defeated North Carolina Tar Heels 76–66 on 2025-12-14 in NCAA Women's play, a 10-point result. A 13-0 road team run ending at OT 0:04 swung win probability 81% → 0%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why North Carolina Tar Heels lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals | 26 | 12 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 76 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 24 | 9 | 18 | 15 | 0 | 66 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 13-0 road team run ending at OT 0:04 swung win probability 81% → 0%.
Why North Carolina Tar Heels lost
- Lost Q5 0-10 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 13-0 run ending at OT 0:04 (win probability 81% → 0% for the home side).
- Shot 46.1% eFG vs a 51.7% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 1 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals | 11–0 | Q3 4:51 | 68% → 17% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 8–0 | Q4 0:19 | 21% → 81% |
| Louisville Cardinals | 13–0 | OT 0:04 | 81% → 0% |