North Carolina Tar Heels 61, NC State Wolfpack 59
NCAA Women's · 2026-02-02 · Winner: North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels defeated NC State Wolfpack 61–59 on 2026-02-02 in NCAA Women's play, a 2-point result. A 8-0 road team run ending at Q4 9:08 swung win probability 43% → 4%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why NC State Wolfpack lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 14 | 16 | 18 | 13 | 61 |
| NC State Wolfpack | 20 | 14 | 8 | 17 | 59 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 road team run ending at Q4 9:08 swung win probability 43% → 4%.
Why NC State Wolfpack lost
- Lost Q3 8-18 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at Q2 1:09 (win probability 90% → 64% for the home side).
- Shot 40.7% eFG vs a 49.6% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 8–0 | Q2 1:09 | 90% → 64% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 8–0 | Q4 9:08 | 43% → 4% |