NC State Wolfpack 78, Virginia Cavaliers 76
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-24 · Winner: NC State Wolfpack
NC State Wolfpack defeated Virginia Cavaliers 78–76 on 2026-01-24 in NCAA Women's play, a 2-point result. A 10-0 road team run ending at Q1 6:41 swung win probability 63% → 29%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Virginia Cavaliers lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State Wolfpack | 16 | 18 | 14 | 18 | 12 | 78 |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 6 | 12 | 19 | 29 | 10 | 76 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 road team run ending at Q1 6:41 swung win probability 63% → 29%.
Why Virginia Cavaliers lost
- Lost Q1 6-16 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q1 6:41 (win probability 63% → 29% for the home side).
- Outscored 26-4 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State Wolfpack | 10–0 | Q1 6:41 | 63% → 29% |
| NC State Wolfpack | 9–0 | Q2 2:41 | 33% → 7% |