SMU Mustangs 54, NC State Wolfpack 91
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-11 · Winner: NC State Wolfpack
NC State Wolfpack defeated SMU Mustangs 91–54 on 2026-01-11 in NCAA Women's play, a 37-point result. A 10-0 home team run ending at Q1 1:35 swung win probability 78% → 97%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why SMU Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 9 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 54 |
| NC State Wolfpack | 25 | 15 | 30 | 21 | 91 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 home team run ending at Q1 1:35 swung win probability 78% → 97%.
Why SMU Mustangs lost
- Lost Q3 11-30 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 16-0 run ending at Q3 3:30 (win probability 99% → 100% for the home side).
- Beaten on the offensive glass 13-5.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State Wolfpack | 10–0 | Q1 1:35 | 78% → 97% |
| NC State Wolfpack | 12–0 | Q2 8:30 | 92% → 100% |
| NC State Wolfpack | 16–0 | Q3 3:30 | 99% → 100% |
| NC State Wolfpack | 9–0 | Q4 5:37 | 100% → 100% |