Cal Poly Mustangs 50, California Golden Bears 91
NCAA Women's · 2025-12-28 · Winner: California Golden Bears
California Golden Bears defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 91–50 on 2025-12-28 in NCAA Women's play, a 41-point result. A 8-0 home team run ending at Q1 2:01 swung win probability 51% → 79%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 10 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 50 |
| California Golden Bears | 15 | 19 | 27 | 30 | 91 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 home team run ending at Q1 2:01 swung win probability 51% → 79%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost Q4 13-30 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 17-0 run ending at Q4 1:35 (win probability 100% → 100% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 23-10.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Golden Bears | 8–0 | Q1 2:01 | 51% → 79% |
| California Golden Bears | 8–0 | Q2 0:40 | 83% → 98% |
| California Golden Bears | 17–0 | Q4 1:35 | 100% → 100% |