Samford Bulldogs 67, Mercer Bears 76
NCAA Women's · 2026-01-17 · Winner: Mercer Bears
Mercer Bears defeated Samford Bulldogs 76–67 on 2026-01-17 in NCAA Women's play, a 9-point result. A 12-0 home team run ending at Q1 2:22 swung win probability 65% → 95%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Samford Bulldogs lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samford Bulldogs | 13 | 11 | 17 | 26 | 67 |
| Mercer Bears | 20 | 15 | 23 | 18 | 76 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 home team run ending at Q1 2:22 swung win probability 65% → 95%.
Why Samford Bulldogs lost
- Lost Q1 13-20 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at Q1 2:22 (win probability 65% → 95% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 23-10.
- Outscored 27-14 at the free-throw line.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 13-5.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercer Bears | 12–0 | Q1 2:22 | 65% → 95% |
| Mercer Bears | 9–0 | Q3 2:22 | 93% → 100% |